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Job Market Trends in Texas for 2026

Job Market Trends In Texas For 2026

Texas entered autumn 2026 with job growth still positive over the year, but the statewide picture is softer than it appeared after the strong June report. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment stood at 14,461,300 in September, down 11,100 from August and up 154,300 from September 2025. The annual growth rate was 1.1 percent, while the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 4.4 percent.[Statewide data]

The 2026 forecast has changed direction as well. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas raised its forecast to 2.0 percent growth in July after the midyear pickup, then lowered the estimate to 1.2 percent in September after weaker July growth and benchmark revisions reduced the measured pace earlier in the year. The September forecast calls for about 173,600 additional jobs during 2026, well below the 286,000 projected in July.[Forecast revision]

The statewide total also hides a mixed sector pattern. Professional and business services remained the strongest major industry over the year, manufacturing moved back above its September 2025 level, and construction continued to grow annually. Information and financial activities remained below year-earlier employment, while government also recorded an annual decline.

Data Scope

  • Latest statewide reference month: September 2026.
  • Statewide payroll and unemployment figures: seasonally adjusted.
  • June-to-September industry comparison: statewide seasonally adjusted payroll levels; earlier monthly estimates may have been revised after their first release.
  • Latest metro payroll reference month used below: August 2026, reported on a not seasonally adjusted basis for metropolitan statistical areas.
  • Latest metro unemployment reference month used below: September 2026, also not seasonally adjusted.
  • Data status: monthly estimates are preliminary or subject to later revision where the source identifies them as such.

Texas Employment Position in September 2026

The June report marked the strongest point of the midyear acceleration, but later data did not extend that pace. The current September total of 14,461,300 jobs is slightly below the revised June level now shown in federal data, and the annual growth rate has eased to 1.1 percent. September itself produced an 11,100-job decline after seasonal adjustment.

Texas labor-market position using September 2026 statewide data and the September 18 Dallas Fed forecast
MeasureLatest ValueHow to Read It
Total nonfarm employment14,461,300Seasonally adjusted jobs on Texas employer payrolls
Change from August−11,100One-month payroll change after seasonal adjustment
Change over 12 months+154,300Equivalent to annual growth of 1.1 percent
Unemployment rate4.4 percentSeasonally adjusted share of the civilian labor force without work and actively seeking work
Dallas Fed 2026 forecast+1.2 percentDecember-to-December forecast rather than a recorded result
Forecast job increase173,600Model-based estimate for 2026
Forecast December employment14.5 millionProjected year-end payroll level

The 2026 Forecast Has Moved Up and Then Back Down

Dallas Fed Texas employment forecast revisions during 2026
Forecast Date2026 Growth ForecastProjected Job GainProjected December Employment
February 61.1 percent154,60014.4 million
July 172.0 percent286,00014.6 million
September 181.2 percent173,60014.5 million

The sequence matters more than any one forecast value. February began with a cautious 1.1 percent estimate. Stronger midyear payroll readings pushed the July forecast to 2.0 percent, but the September update moved back toward the early-year view. The Dallas Fed attributed much of the September reduction to first-quarter benchmark revisions, which lowered measured year-to-date growth, while July employment had also weakened. The September forecast carries an 80 percent confidence range of 0.8 to 1.6 percent.

The September 18 forecast remains the latest published Dallas Fed Texas employment forecast available on October 17. The bank states that the update originally scheduled for October 16 will be released on October 19 because of data-processing delays.[Forecast timing]

Forecast values are not job announcements. The September estimate represents expected net payroll growth across the state. It does not mean that 173,600 identifiable vacancies are available at one time, and it does not imply equal growth across occupations or regions.

Why Payroll Growth and Unemployment Can Move Differently

Texas payroll employment declined in September while the unemployment rate remained at 4.4 percent. The civilian labor force, meanwhile, increased by 15,800 people to 15,948,400. These results are not contradictory because employer payroll data and household-based labor-force data come from different statistical programs and answer different questions.[Measure comparison]

Measures used to describe the Texas labor market
MeasurePrimary QuestionWhat Is Counted
Current Employment StatisticsHow many jobs do Texas employers have?Payroll positions reported by establishments
Local Area Unemployment StatisticsHow many Texas residents are employed or unemployed?People classified by labor-force status
Unemployment rateWhat share of the labor force is looking for work?Unemployed people divided by the civilian labor force
Job-openings dataHow many positions meet a defined vacancy standard?Open positions for which employers are actively recruiting
Online job postingsHow many advertisements are visible?Posted advertisements, which may contain duplicates or remain open after hiring activity changes

A payroll job belongs to the establishment survey, while employed and unemployed residents belong to household-based labor-force statistics. A person with two payroll jobs can appear twice in payroll employment but once in household employment. Commuters and changes in labor-force participation can also make the two series move differently from month to month.

Why the monthly totals may be revised

Initial employment estimates rely on survey responses, statistical adjustment, and incomplete administrative records. Later releases incorporate additional responses and benchmark data. The revised June payroll level already differs from the figure first reported in July, which is why comparisons should use the latest available series rather than preserving an older preliminary value as a fixed benchmark.

Industry Growth Is Uneven by September 2026

September did not produce a broad advance across major industries. Manufacturing added 4,700 jobs over the month, professional and business services added 1,600, information added 1,400, and other services added 1,100. Construction, trade and transportation, financial activities, private education and health services, leisure and hospitality, mining and logging, and government all declined from August. Over the year, professional and business services remained the strongest major sector at 3.3 percent growth.[Industry data]

Selected Texas industry payroll levels from June to September 2026; seasonally adjusted employment in thousands
IndustryJune 2026September 2026June–September ChangeSeptember 12-Month Change
Professional and business services2,185.42,192.0+6.6+3.3 percent
Manufacturing980.3990.6+10.3+0.9 percent
Construction925.1921.6−3.5+1.7 percent
Information214.0212.9−1.1−3.9 percent
Financial activities944.8940.6−4.2−0.2 percent
Private education and health services2,008.02,003.8−4.2+0.9 percent
Leisure and hospitality1,554.61,555.4+0.8+1.6 percent
Government2,127.32,131.8+4.5−0.3 percent

The June values in this comparison reflect revised series rather than the first estimates published for June. The net June-to-September differences therefore should not be reconstructed by adding the monthly changes reported in older news releases. Revisions can alter earlier levels even when the latest month is unchanged.

Professional Services Remain the Strongest Major Sector

Professional and business services reached 2.192 million jobs in September after adding 1,600 over the month. Employment was 69,400 above September 2025, a 3.3 percent annual increase. That makes the sector a larger source of annual growth than the September statewide total alone might suggest.

The category includes legal and accounting services, engineering, management services, administrative support, and employment services. Growth in the aggregate does not mean every office-based occupation is expanding at the same rate. Staffing-services activity can also move earlier than permanent hiring because employers can add flexible labor before committing to longer-term positions.

Dallas Fed service-sector respondents reported modest employment growth in September. The employment index was 4.1, while the hours-worked index was 0.1 and the revenue index was −0.9. That combination points to more firms reporting higher employment than lower employment, but little net movement in hours and broadly flat revenue among survey respondents.[Business survey]

A diffusion index is not a job-growth rate. A positive Dallas Fed employment index means a larger share of responding firms reported an increase than a decrease. An index of 4.1 does not mean service employment rose by 4.1 percent.

Construction and Manufacturing Are Following Different Paths

Construction Remains Above 2025 but Below Its June Level

Texas construction employment stood at 921,600 in September, down 2,400 from August but 15,000 above September 2025. The 1.7 percent annual gain remains positive, although the sector is now below its revised June level of 925,100.[Sector payrolls]

Housing is only one source of construction labor demand. Transportation and utility infrastructure, industrial facilities, power systems, and data-center development can support hiring even when residential conditions are uneven across Texas metros.

Data-center construction can create concentrated demand for electricians, equipment operators, HVAC specialists, controls technicians, engineers, inspectors, and construction managers. The number and type of jobs change when a facility moves from construction to operation.

How a major infrastructure or data-center project changes labor demand
Project StageTypical Labor DemandEmployment Character
Site preparation and constructionEquipment operators, laborers, electricians, pipefitters, concrete crews, supervisorsLarge but often project-limited workforce
CommissioningEngineers, controls specialists, inspectors, testing techniciansSmaller technical workforce during system activation
Ongoing operationFacility technicians, network staff, security, maintenance, managementLonger-lasting but usually much smaller headcount

A large construction contract should therefore not be converted directly into an estimate of permanent jobs. The build phase and operating phase require different occupations, staffing levels, and timelines.

Manufacturing Payrolls Have Moved Back Above 2025

Manufacturing employment reached 990,600 in September after adding 4,700 jobs over the month. The sector was 8,400 jobs, or 0.9 percent, above September 2025. That is a change from June, when the revised manufacturing series was still below its year-earlier level.

The September Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey also showed stronger activity among respondents. The production index was 29.5, the employment index rose to 15.1, the hours-worked index was 5.6, and the wages-and-benefits index was 27.4. The future production index reached 40.3, while the future general business activity index was 20.8.[Manufacturing survey]

The survey and payroll series now point in the same direction more clearly than they did at midyear, but they still measure different things. A survey can turn before or after payroll employment, and manufacturers can raise output through overtime, equipment, automation, or productivity without matching the same percentage change in headcount.

Production growth and employment growth are separate measures. A factory can produce more with existing staff, longer workweeks, new equipment, or higher labor productivity. Manufacturing output should not be treated as a direct estimate of manufacturing hiring.

Health Services Stay Positive Over the Year While Information Remains Lower

Private education and health services employed 2,003,800 people in September, down 4,800 from August but up 18,100, or 0.9 percent, from September 2025. Information employment moved in the opposite annual direction: the sector added 1,400 jobs in September but remained 8,700 jobs, or 3.9 percent, below its year-earlier level.[Sector comparison]

Health Demand Is Broader Than Hospital Hiring

The combined private education and health-services category includes more than nurses and hospitals. It covers ambulatory care, physician offices, residential care, social assistance, private schools, colleges, and other education services. A decline in the combined monthly total does not establish that every health subsector reduced employment.

Job seekers evaluating health-related demand should compare the specific occupation, employer type, metro area, and licensing requirement. A statewide annual increase does not guarantee that every hospital system or county is hiring at the same pace.

Information Employment Is Not the Entire Technology Workforce

The information industry includes publishing, broadcasting, telecommunications, data-processing activities, and related services. It does not contain every software developer, cybersecurity analyst, database administrator, or technology manager working in Texas.

Technology occupations are distributed across professional services, finance, manufacturing, health care, energy, retail, government, and other industries. A software engineer employed by a bank is counted in financial activities, while a network specialist employed by a manufacturer is counted in manufacturing.

Industry and occupation should not be used interchangeably. Industry data classify the employer’s main business. Occupational data classify the work performed by the employee. The annual decline in information employment does not establish that all technology occupations are contracting.

The Four Largest Metro Areas Are Still Moving at Different Speeds

Texas metro data are reported for metropolitan statistical areas, or MSAs. An MSA contains a central urban area and surrounding counties linked through commuting and economic activity. It is not the same as the city proper, a single county, or a cultural region.

The latest comparable payroll series used here is August 2026, while the unemployment-rate column uses September 2026 labor-force estimates. Both metro measures are not seasonally adjusted, so they should not be compared directly with the seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate or statewide payroll change.

Major Texas metro labor-market comparison: August 2026 payroll employment and September 2026 unemployment rates; figures are not seasonally adjusted
Metropolitan AreaAugust Payroll Jobs12-Month Payroll ChangeSeptember Unemployment RateSelected Annual Industry Patterns
Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos[Austin data]1,415,900+1.2 percent3.7 percentMining, logging, and construction +4.2 percent; manufacturing +2.9 percent; information −5.5 percent
Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington[DFW data]4,357,000+1.0 percent4.1 percentProfessional and business services +3.1 percent; mining, logging, and construction +3.0 percent; information −2.1 percent
Houston–Pasadena–The Woodlands[Houston data]3,495,300+1.3 percent4.6 percentConstruction +5.5 percent; professional services +2.6 percent; information −5.9 percent
San Antonio–New Braunfels[San Antonio data]1,191,700+0.5 percent4.3 percentProfessional and business services +4.8 percent; construction +2.9 percent; information −7.7 percent

Austin: Construction Remains Strong While Information Is Lower

Austin’s August payroll employment was 1.2 percent above a year earlier. The combined mining, logging, and construction group grew by 4.2 percent, and manufacturing was up 2.9 percent. Information employment remained 5.5 percent below August 2025, so the metro’s total growth still does not amount to a uniform rebound across technology-associated industries.

Dallas–Fort Worth: Scale, Business Services, and Construction

The Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington MSA had about 4.36 million payroll jobs in August. Professional and business services grew 3.1 percent over the year, and the combined mining, logging, and construction group grew 3.0 percent. Information remained below its year-earlier level.

The term Metroplex is commonly used for the broader Dallas–Fort Worth region, but it is not a separate government jurisdiction. The combined MSA also masks differences between the Dallas–Plano–Irving and Fort Worth–Arlington–Grapevine metropolitan divisions.

Houston: The Fastest Annual Gain Among the Four in August

Houston–Pasadena–The Woodlands recorded 1.3 percent annual payroll growth in August, slightly above Austin and Dallas–Fort Worth and above San Antonio. Construction employment was 5.5 percent higher than a year earlier, while professional and business services grew 2.6 percent. Information employment remained 5.9 percent lower.

San Antonio: Business Services Outpace the Metro Total

San Antonio–New Braunfels recorded the slowest annual payroll growth among the four largest MSAs in August at 0.5 percent. Professional and business services increased 4.8 percent and construction rose 2.9 percent, while information employment was 7.7 percent below its year-earlier level.

The informal “Texas Triangle” usually refers to the Austin, Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio urban system. It has no single administrative boundary. Comparisons should therefore use named MSAs rather than treating the Triangle as an official labor-market jurisdiction.

Labor Demand Beyond the Four Largest Metros

Statewide growth can obscure conditions in border, energy, and regional service centers. El Paso, Midland, and McAllen–Edinburg–Mission continue to show different employment structures and different unemployment rates.

Selected regional Texas labor markets: August 2026 payroll employment and September 2026 unemployment rates; figures are not seasonally adjusted
Metropolitan AreaAugust Payroll Jobs12-Month Payroll ChangeSeptember Unemployment RateSelected Annual Industry Patterns
El Paso[El Paso data]363,500+0.9 percent4.3 percentProfessional services +3.5 percent; information −4.5 percent
Midland[Midland data]129,800+3.3 percent3.2 percentMining, logging, and construction +5.2 percent; manufacturing +2.0 percent; information −10.0 percent
McAllen–Edinburg–Mission[McAllen data]308,100+1.0 percent5.6 percentMining, logging, and construction +2.1 percent; professional services +1.2 percent; information −8.1 percent

Midland had the lowest September unemployment rate among Texas MSAs at 3.2 percent. It is one employment center within the wider Permian Basin, but the Midland MSA should not be treated as a statistical measure of the entire basin. Oilfield commuting, service activity, and production extend into the Odessa area, rural West Texas counties, and southeastern New Mexico.

McAllen–Edinburg–Mission covers a major part of Hidalgo County and the Lower Rio Grande Valley economy. The Lower Rio Grande Valley is a broader cultural and economic region rather than a single MSA. Brownsville–Harlingen is reported separately.

El Paso’s labor market is shaped by cross-border trade, government, health services, logistics, and regional professional services. Its MSA statistics should not be combined with Ciudad Juárez employment or treated as a count of the wider binational economy.

Wages, Openings, and Long-Term Demand

Employer Wage Expectations in September

Texas firms responding to the Dallas Fed’s September special questions reported average wage growth of 3.9 percent over the previous 12 months and expected another 3.9 percent over the next 12 months. Manufacturing respondents reported 4.2 percent past growth and 3.7 percent expected growth, while service-sector respondents reported 3.8 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively.[Wage expectations]

These are averages from surveyed businesses, not a statewide pay rule or a forecast for every occupation. Individual pay changes depend on occupation, experience, licensing, employer budget, local competition, work schedule, and whether the position is new or existing.

A Job Advertisement, an Opening, and a Projection Are Different Measures

Official Texas labor-market data products and the decisions they can support
Data ProductWhat It MeasuresAppropriate UseMain Limitation
Current Employment StatisticsMonthly jobs by industryIdentify recent employer payroll directionDoes not show individual occupations or vacancies
Local Area Unemployment StatisticsLabor force, resident employment, unemploymentEvaluate labor-force conditions by place of residenceDoes not count employer job openings
Occupational Employment and Wage StatisticsEmployment and wage estimates by occupationCompare occupational pay and concentrationAnnual estimates may lag fast-moving market changes
Online job-posting dataAdvertisements collected from online sourcesIdentify employers, titles, and skills appearing in active recruitingPostings can be duplicated, renewed, cancelled, or left online
State JOLTSJob openings, hires, quits, layoffs, and separationsEvaluate labor demand and worker turnoverState estimates are model-supported and the news release is now annual
Texas employment projectionsExpected industry and occupational change over two or ten yearsEvaluate training and career directionNot a count of positions available today

The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines a JOLTS job opening as a specific position with work available, a possible start within 30 days, and active external recruiting. In July 2026, BLS moved the state JOLTS news release from monthly publication to an annual release; monthly state estimates for the preceding calendar year are published with that annual release.[Openings definition]

As a result, state JOLTS should not be presented as a live monthly count of 2026 Texas vacancies. Current advertisements and employer recruiting activity require a separate online-posting source, while long-term career comparisons should use the Texas Workforce Commission projections system.

The Texas Workforce Commission projections portal now reports the 2024–2034 projection period and allows users to examine statewide results or results for one of Texas’ 28 Workforce Development Areas. These projections are intended for longer-term industry and occupational planning; they are not a count of positions available today.[Projection period]

A Practical Reading for Job Seekers

  • Check whether the occupation is growing, not only whether the employer’s industry is growing.
  • Compare the relevant MSA or Workforce Development Area rather than relying solely on the statewide rate.
  • Separate permanent openings from temporary, contract, seasonal, and project-based work.
  • Use current postings to identify requested skills, but use wage estimates and projections for broader comparison.
  • Confirm any Texas license, registration, certification, or examination requirement with the agency or occupational board responsible for that profession.
  • Evaluate an offered wage together with work hours, benefits, commuting distance, and the local cost of housing rather than comparing the salary alone.

A Practical Reading for Employers

  • Compare recruiting results with the relevant occupation and metro area rather than the statewide unemployment rate alone.
  • Track application volume, interview acceptance, offer acceptance, and time to fill separately.
  • Watch temporary-staffing demand as an early indicator, but confirm whether permanent hiring and work hours are also improving.
  • Budget for occupation-specific wage pressure rather than applying a single statewide percentage to every role.
  • Distinguish construction-phase labor demand from the smaller operating workforce associated with completed facilities.

Data Checkpoints for the Rest of 2026

The September data do not erase the midyear improvement, but they narrow the case for a broad acceleration. The statewide payroll level is still above September 2025, professional and business services remain strong, and manufacturing has moved back into annual growth. At the same time, the September payroll decline, weaker information employment, uneven metro growth, and lower Dallas Fed forecast make the late-year path less certain than it appeared in July.

Indicators that can strengthen or weaken the late-2026 Texas employment trend
IndicatorStronger ReadingSofter Reading
Professional and business servicesAnnual growth remains broad across permanent business servicesGains become concentrated in a narrow set of staffing or administrative activities
Information employmentAnnual losses narrow across several metrosThe statewide and metro declines persist
ConstructionAnnual growth continues across several project types and regionsPayrolls keep slipping from the midyear level as projects mature
ManufacturingPayroll gains continue alongside positive survey readingsSurvey strength fades or payroll employment reverses
Labor forceNew entrants are absorbed into employment without a higher unemployment rateThe number of job seekers rises faster than hiring
Dallas Fed forecastThe 1.2 percent estimate stabilizes or moves higherBenchmark revisions or weaker monthly data produce another reduction

The Texas Workforce Commission’s published 2026 release schedule lists November 20 for October reference-month CES and LAUS data. Texas LMI currently carries a separate notice stating that October and November employment-data release timing will be determined as TWC works with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The live Texas LMI notice should therefore take priority over assuming the older calendar will hold unchanged.[Release status]

Before using the figures for relocation, hiring, training, or compensation decisions: confirm the latest reference month, adjustment status, geographic definition, and revision status on the relevant BLS or Texas Workforce Commission data page. A city name in a metro title does not mean the result applies only to that city or equally to every county in the MSA.

Official labor-market sources and verification notes

Official Records Used for the 2026 Texas Labor Market Analysis

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