Texas entered the second half of 2026 with stronger job growth than the state recorded at the beginning of the year. Employers added 43,400 nonfarm jobs in June, bringing statewide payroll employment to 14,469,600. The state had 177,900 more jobs than a year earlier, while the unemployment rate reached 4.4 percent.[Statewide data]
The headline gain does not describe every part of the labor market. Professional and business services supplied more than half of the June increase, information employment remained below its year-earlier level, and the four largest metropolitan areas reported different rates of growth. Payroll employment also rose while the number of employed Texas residents declined slightly during the month.
Data Scope
- Latest statewide reference month: June 2026.
- Statewide payroll and unemployment figures: seasonally adjusted.
- Metro payroll figures: not seasonally adjusted and reported for metropolitan statistical areas rather than city limits.
- Latest unemployment period in the metro comparison: May 2026, because June metro labor-force estimates were not yet displayed with the June payroll figures.
- Data status: preliminary and subject to later revisions.
Texas Employment Position in Mid-2026
June marked a clear acceleration from the subdued conditions visible during the first months of 2026. Total nonfarm employment increased from 14,426,200 in May to 14,469,600 in June. The 1.2 percent annual growth rate was positive, but it remained below the much faster expansion Texas experienced during parts of the post-pandemic period.
| Measure | Latest Value | How to Read It |
|---|---|---|
| Total nonfarm employment | 14,469,600 | Number of jobs on Texas employer payrolls |
| Change from May | +43,400 | Strong one-month increase after seasonal adjustment |
| Change over 12 months | +177,900 | Equivalent to annual growth of 1.2 percent |
| Unemployment rate | 4.4 percent | Share of the civilian labor force without work and actively seeking work |
| Dallas Fed 2026 forecast | +2.0 percent | December-to-December forecast rather than a recorded result |
| Forecast job increase | 286,000 | Model-based estimate for the full calendar year |
| Forecast December employment | 14.6 million | Projected year-end payroll level |
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas raised its Texas employment forecast as the year progressed. Its February projection called for 1.1 percent growth and approximately 154,600 additional jobs. By July 17, the forecast had risen to 2.0 percent and 286,000 jobs.[Forecast revision]
The July forecast includes an 80 percent confidence range of 1.5 to 2.5 percent. The central estimate places December employment at 14.6 million, but the range shows that the final count could differ as national growth, oil prices, labor supply, and Texas leading indicators change.[Employment forecast]
Forecast values are not job announcements. The estimate represents expected net payroll growth across the state. It does not mean that 286,000 identifiable vacancies are available at one time, nor does it guarantee equal growth across occupations or regions.
Why Payroll Growth and Unemployment Can Move Differently
Texas added payroll jobs in June while the unemployment rate rose from 4.3 to 4.4 percent. The two results are not contradictory because they come from different statistical programs and answer different questions.
| Measure | Primary Question | What Is Counted |
|---|---|---|
| Current Employment Statistics | How many jobs do Texas employers have? | Payroll positions reported by establishments |
| Local Area Unemployment Statistics | How many Texas residents are employed or unemployed? | People classified by labor-force status |
| Unemployment rate | What share of the labor force is looking for work? | Unemployed people divided by the civilian labor force |
| Job-openings data | How many positions meet a defined vacancy standard? | Open positions for which employers are actively recruiting |
| Online job postings | How many advertisements are visible? | Posted advertisements, which may contain duplicates or remain open after hiring activity changes |
Between May and June, statewide payroll employment increased by 43,400 jobs. Household-based employment, however, declined from approximately 15.213 million residents to 15.204 million. The civilian labor force increased slightly, and the estimated number of unemployed residents rose by about 13,000.[Measure comparison]
Several conditions can produce that combination. More residents may begin looking for work, newly arriving workers may enter the labor force, or employers may add jobs that are filled by commuters and multiple-job holders. A worker with two payroll jobs appears twice in the establishment count but once in the household employment count.
Why the monthly totals may be revised
Initial employment estimates rely on survey responses, statistical adjustment, and incomplete administrative records. Later releases incorporate additional responses and benchmark data. Small monthly differences should therefore be read as estimates rather than exact counts of every job or worker in Texas.
Industries Driving the 2026 Expansion
Professional and business services produced the largest June increase, followed by leisure and hospitality. Construction and trade, transportation, and utilities also added jobs. Education and health services and government declined during the month even though education and health services remained above its June 2025 level.[Industry data]
| Industry | June Employment | Change from May | 12-Month Change | 2026 Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Professional and business services | 2,191.6 | +25.5 | +3.2 percent | Largest contributor to the June increase |
| Leisure and hospitality | 1,556.1 | +10.3 | +1.8 percent | Strong monthly gain with possible seasonal and event effects |
| Trade, transportation, and utilities | 2,816.6 | +6.4 | +1.2 percent | Moderate growth across a very large employment base |
| Construction | 927.3 | +5.2 | +2.7 percent | Broad statewide strength with large metro differences |
| Financial activities | 944.8 | +3.7 | +0.4 percent | Positive month but limited annual expansion |
| Other services | 497.4 | +1.4 | +1.6 percent | Steady annual gain |
| Manufacturing | 977.5 | +1.2 | −0.9 percent | Monthly improvement has not erased the annual decline |
| Information | 214.5 | +0.2 | −4.2 percent | Weakest annual result among the major sectors |
| Mining and logging | 213.6 | −0.2 | +0.6 percent | Energy activity is not producing a broad payroll surge |
| Education and health services | 2,003.4 | −4.3 | +1.7 percent | Monthly decline within a positive annual trend |
| Government | 2,126.8 | −6.0 | −0.3 percent | Public-sector payrolls remained slightly below a year earlier |
Professional Services and Staffing Are Providing an Early Signal
Professional and business services accounted for 25,500 of the 43,400 jobs added in June. The category includes legal and accounting services, engineering, management services, administrative support, and employment services. Growth in one part of the category should not be interpreted as equal demand across every office-based occupation.
Staffing-services employment had already rebounded during the first quarter, accounting for one-third of statewide job gains during that period. Employment services often respond quickly when employers need more labor but remain reluctant to authorize permanent positions.[Staffing trend]
The pattern supports two different readings. Rising temporary employment can precede broader hiring because employers first add flexible capacity. It can also show that businesses are avoiding permanent commitments while demand remains uncertain. The direction becomes clearer only if permanent employment, hours worked, and hiring rates rise alongside staffing demand.
Dallas Fed service-sector respondents also reported renewed employment growth in June. The survey employment index rose from −3.2 in May to 8.1 in June, while the hours-worked index increased to 3.6.[Business survey]
A diffusion index is not a job count. A positive Dallas Fed survey index means that a larger share of responding firms reported an increase than a decrease. An index of 8.1 does not mean service employment grew by 8.1 percent.
Construction Projects and Manufacturing Signals
Construction Demand Extends Beyond Housing
Texas construction employment was 2.7 percent higher than a year earlier. Housing remains one source of work, but the 2026 result also reflects nonresidential projects, transportation and utility infrastructure, industrial facilities, power systems, and data-center development.
Data-center construction can generate concentrated demand for electricians, equipment operators, HVAC specialists, controls technicians, engineers, inspectors, and construction managers. The number and type of jobs change when a facility moves from construction to operation.
| Project Stage | Typical Labor Demand | Employment Character |
|---|---|---|
| Site preparation and construction | Equipment operators, laborers, electricians, pipefitters, concrete crews, supervisors | Large but often project-limited workforce |
| Commissioning | Engineers, controls specialists, inspectors, testing technicians | Smaller technical workforce during system activation |
| Ongoing operation | Facility technicians, network staff, security, maintenance, management | Longer-lasting but usually much smaller headcount |
A large construction contract should therefore not be converted directly into an estimate of permanent jobs. The build phase and operating phase require different occupations, staffing levels, and timelines.
Manufacturing Activity Is Improving Before Payrolls Fully Recover
Manufacturing employment increased by 1,200 jobs from May to June, but the sector still had 0.9 percent fewer jobs than in June 2025. This indicates that a positive month has not yet become a sustained payroll recovery.
The July Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey provided a more positive forward signal. Its employment index remained above average at 12.2, the hours-worked index was 4.3, and the wages-and-benefits index rose to 30.8. Expectations for production and general business activity six months ahead also remained positive.[Manufacturing survey]
Survey improvement can appear before official payroll gains because manufacturers may first increase production, overtime, or existing-worker hours. Automation and capital investment can also raise output without producing the same percentage increase in headcount.
Production growth and employment growth are separate measures. A factory can produce more with existing staff, longer workweeks, new equipment, or higher labor productivity. Manufacturing output should not be treated as a direct estimate of manufacturing hiring.
Health Services and Information Are Moving in Opposite Directions
Education and health services remained 1.7 percent above its year-earlier employment level despite losing 4,300 jobs in June. Information employment was 4.2 percent below June 2025, the largest annual decline among the statewide sectors shown in the BLS comparison.[Sector comparison]
Health Demand Is Broader Than Hospital Hiring
The combined education and health-services category includes more than nurses and hospitals. It covers ambulatory care, physician offices, residential care, social assistance, private schools, colleges, and other education services. A decrease in the combined monthly total does not establish that every health subsector reduced employment.
Job seekers evaluating health-related demand should compare the specific occupation, employer type, metro area, and licensing requirement. A statewide annual increase does not guarantee that every hospital system or county is hiring at the same pace.
Information Employment Is Not the Entire Technology Workforce
The information industry includes publishing, broadcasting, telecommunications, data-processing activities, and related services. It does not contain every software developer, cybersecurity analyst, database administrator, or technology manager working in Texas.
Technology occupations are distributed across professional services, finance, manufacturing, health care, energy, retail, government, and other industries. A software engineer employed by a bank is counted in financial activities, while a network specialist employed by a manufacturer is counted in manufacturing.
Industry and occupation should not be used interchangeably. Industry data classify the employer’s main business. Occupational data classify the work performed by the employee. The decline in information employment does not establish that all technology occupations are contracting.
The Four Largest Metro Areas Are Not Moving Together
Texas metro data are reported for metropolitan statistical areas, or MSAs. An MSA contains a central urban area and surrounding counties linked through commuting and economic activity. It is not the same as the city proper, a single county, or a cultural region.
| Metropolitan Area | June Payroll Jobs | 12-Month Payroll Change | May Unemployment Rate | Notable Annual Industry Patterns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos[Austin data] | 1,432,100 | +1.9 percent | 3.5 percent | Mining, logging, and construction +6.6 percent; professional services +3.2 percent; information −3.5 percent |
| Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington[DFW data] | 4,363,300 | +1.3 percent | 4.0 percent | Professional services +2.9 percent; mining, logging, and construction +2.4 percent; information −2.6 percent |
| Houston–Pasadena–The Woodlands[Houston data] | 3,521,500 | +1.1 percent | 4.6 percent | Construction +5.9 percent; information −5.2 percent; financial activities −1.4 percent |
| San Antonio–New Braunfels[San Antonio data] | 1,196,800 | +0.6 percent | 4.1 percent | Trade, transportation, and utilities +4.0 percent; information −7.1 percent; construction −0.3 percent |
Austin: Faster Growth Without a Broad Information-Sector Recovery
Austin recorded the fastest annual payroll growth among the four largest metro areas. The combined mining, logging, and construction category was the strongest major group, while professional and business services also grew. Information employment remained below its June 2025 level, showing that faster metro growth did not amount to a uniform rebound across technology-associated industries.
Dallas–Fort Worth: Scale, Business Services, and Construction
The Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington MSA had more than 4.36 million payroll jobs, making percentage changes equivalent to large numbers of positions. Professional and business services and the combined construction category outperformed the metro’s total annual growth rate.
The term Metroplex is commonly used for the broader Dallas–Fort Worth region, but it is not a separate government jurisdiction. The combined MSA also masks differences between the Dallas–Plano–Irving and Fort Worth–Arlington metropolitan divisions.
Houston: Construction Strength Alongside Energy Complexity
Houston’s construction employment increased much faster than total metro employment. Direct mining and logging employment remained below its year-earlier level, demonstrating that higher energy activity can support construction, engineering, logistics, and business services without producing an equal increase in upstream payrolls.
San Antonio: Trade Growth With a Slower Metro Total
San Antonio recorded the slowest annual payroll growth among the four largest MSAs. Trade, transportation, and utilities expanded by 4.0 percent, but construction, manufacturing, information, leisure and hospitality, and government were below their year-earlier levels.
The informal “Texas Triangle” usually refers to the Austin, Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio urban system. It has no single administrative boundary. Comparisons should therefore use named MSAs rather than treating the Triangle as an official labor-market jurisdiction.
Labor Demand Beyond the Four Largest Metros
Statewide growth can obscure conditions in border, energy, and regional service centers. El Paso, Midland, and McAllen–Edinburg–Mission illustrate three different employment structures.
| Metropolitan Area | June Payroll Jobs | 12-Month Payroll Change | May Unemployment Rate | Selected Annual Industry Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso[El Paso data] | 365,100 | +1.1 percent | 4.3 percent | Trade, transportation, and utilities +2.1 percent; professional services +2.6 percent; information −3.0 percent |
| Midland[Midland data] | 129,000 | +1.7 percent | 3.1 percent | Manufacturing +4.2 percent; mining, logging, and construction +0.9 percent; professional services −2.4 percent |
| McAllen–Edinburg–Mission[McAllen data] | 309,700 | +1.8 percent | 6.1 percent | Education and health services +4.3 percent; construction group +3.1 percent; professional services −2.0 percent |
Midland is one employment center within the wider Permian Basin, but the Midland MSA should not be treated as a statistical measure of the entire basin. Oilfield commuting, service activity, and production extend into the Odessa area, rural West Texas counties, and southeastern New Mexico.
McAllen–Edinburg–Mission covers a major part of Hidalgo County and the Lower Rio Grande Valley economy. The Lower Rio Grande Valley is a broader cultural and economic region rather than a single MSA. Brownsville–Harlingen is reported separately.
El Paso’s labor market is shaped by cross-border trade, government, health services, logistics, and regional professional services. Its MSA statistics should not be combined with Ciudad Juárez employment or treated as a count of the wider binational economy.
Wages, Openings, and Long-Term Demand
Employer Wage Expectations Strengthened in June
Texas firms participating in the Dallas Fed’s June special questions reported average wage growth of 4.0 percent over the previous 12 months. Respondents expected wages to rise by an average of 3.5 percent during the next 12 months. Manufacturing respondents reported a 4.8 percent past increase and a 3.7 percent expected increase, while service-sector respondents reported 3.8 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively.[Wage expectations]
These are averages from surveyed businesses, not a statewide pay rule or a forecast for every occupation. Individual pay changes depend on occupation, experience, licensing, employer budget, local competition, work schedule, and whether the position is new or existing.
A Job Advertisement, an Opening, and a Projection Are Different Measures
| Data Product | What It Measures | Appropriate Use | Main Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Employment Statistics | Monthly jobs by industry | Identify recent employer payroll direction | Does not show individual occupations or vacancies |
| Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Labor force, resident employment, unemployment | Evaluate labor-force conditions by place of residence | Does not count employer job openings |
| Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics | Employment and wage estimates by occupation | Compare occupational pay and concentration | Annual estimates may lag fast-moving market changes |
| Online job-posting data | Advertisements collected from online sources | Identify employers, titles, and skills appearing in active recruiting | Postings can be duplicated, renewed, cancelled, or left online |
| State JOLTS | Job openings, hires, quits, layoffs, and separations | Evaluate labor demand and worker turnover | State estimates are model-supported and the news release is now annual |
| Texas employment projections | Expected industry and occupational change over two or ten years | Evaluate training and career direction | Not a count of positions available today |
The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines a JOLTS job opening as a specific position with work available, a possible start within 30 days, and active external recruiting. In July 2026, BLS moved the state JOLTS news release from monthly publication to an annual release; monthly state estimates for the preceding calendar year are published with that annual release.[Openings definition]
As a result, state JOLTS should not be presented as a live monthly count of 2026 Texas vacancies. Current advertisements and employer recruiting activity require a separate online-posting source, while long-term career comparisons should use the Texas Workforce Commission projections system.
The Texas Workforce Commission scheduled its 2024–2034 industry and occupational projections for release in July 2026. The projections portal allows statewide results or results for one of the state’s 28 Workforce Development Areas.[Projection period]
A Practical Reading for Job Seekers
- Check whether the occupation is growing, not only whether the employer’s industry is growing.
- Compare the relevant MSA or Workforce Development Area rather than relying solely on the statewide rate.
- Separate permanent openings from temporary, contract, seasonal, and project-based work.
- Use current postings to identify requested skills, but use wage estimates and projections for broader comparison.
- Confirm any Texas licence, registration, certification, or examination requirement with the agency or occupational board responsible for that profession.
- Evaluate an offered wage together with work hours, benefits, commuting distance, and the local cost of housing rather than comparing the salary alone.
A Practical Reading for Employers
- Compare recruiting results with the relevant occupation and metro area rather than the statewide unemployment rate alone.
- Track application volume, interview acceptance, offer acceptance, and time to fill separately.
- Watch temporary-staffing demand as an early indicator, but confirm whether permanent hiring and work hours are also improving.
- Budget for occupation-specific wage pressure rather than applying a single statewide percentage to every role.
- Distinguish construction-phase labor demand from the smaller operating workforce associated with completed facilities.
Data Checkpoints for the Rest of 2026
No single monthly figure will determine the direction of the Texas job market. The quality of the expansion depends on whether growth spreads beyond professional services and temporary staffing, whether information losses narrow, and whether manufacturing survey gains become recorded payroll gains.
| Indicator | Constructive Signal | Warning Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Professional and business services | Gains spread beyond staffing and administrative support | Growth remains concentrated in temporary employment |
| Information employment | Annual losses begin to narrow across several metros | Contraction continues or spreads into related business services |
| Construction | Growth appears across multiple project types and regions | Employment reverses as a limited group of projects reaches completion |
| Manufacturing | Positive survey readings are followed by sustained payroll gains | Production rises while employment remains below the prior year |
| Household employment | Resident employment rises with the payroll count | Payroll gains continue while resident employment weakens |
| Labor-force growth | New entrants are absorbed into employment | The number of job seekers rises faster than hiring |
| Wage pressure | Pay growth accompanies productivity and hiring | Labor costs rise while employer demand softens |
| Dallas Fed forecast | The central forecast holds or moves higher | The forecast range or projected job count is revised lower |
The Texas Workforce Commission scheduled the July 2026 statewide CES and LAUS release for August 21, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Central Time. Substate estimates may be delayed, and all estimates remain subject to revision.[Release schedule]
Before using the figures for relocation, hiring, training, or compensation decisions: confirm the latest reference month, adjustment status, geographic definition, and revision status on the relevant BLS or Texas Workforce Commission data page. A city name in a metro title does not mean the result applies only to that city or equally to every county in the MSA.
Official Records Used for the 2026 Texas Labor Market Analysis
- ↩ Texas job market growth in June 2026 and Texas Economy at a Glance — Provide the payroll total, monthly job gain, annual job gain, annual growth rate, and unemployment rate used in “Texas Employment Position in Mid-2026.” BLS identifies the June values as preliminary and seasonally adjusted.
- ↩ Texas Employment Forecast, February 6, 2026 and Texas Employment Forecast, July 17, 2026 — Supply the 1.1 percent February forecast and the revised 2.0 percent July forecast discussed in “Texas Employment Position in Mid-2026.”
- ↩ Dallas Fed Texas Employment Forecast for July 2026 — Provides the 2.0 percent central estimate, 1.5 to 2.5 percent confidence range, projected 286,000 jobs, and forecast year-end employment of 14.6 million. The figures are model estimates rather than recorded job openings.
- ↩ BLS Texas labor-force and payroll series — Supplies the May and June payroll, civilian labor force, resident employment, unemployment, and unemployment-rate estimates used in “Why Payroll Growth and Unemployment Can Move Differently.”
- ↩ BLS Texas employment by major industry — Provides the employment levels and 12-month changes used in the “Texas Nonfarm Employment by Major Industry” table. Monthly changes were calculated from the May and June seasonally adjusted values displayed by BLS.
- ↩ Texas economy shows resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty — Supports “Professional Services and Staffing Are Providing an Early Signal” by reporting that staffing services accounted for one-third of Texas job gains in the first quarter and explaining the sector’s use as a labor-demand indicator.
- ↩ Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey, June 2026 — Supplies the employment and hours-worked diffusion indexes discussed under “Professional Services and Staffing Are Providing an Early Signal.” The indexes describe the balance of responding firms reporting increases and decreases; they are not employment growth rates.
- ↩ Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, July 2026 — Provides the employment, hours-worked, wages-and-benefits, and future-activity indexes used in “Manufacturing Activity Is Improving Before Payrolls Fully Recover.” Survey responses were collected July 14–22, 2026.
- ↩ BLS Texas education, health-services, and information employment series — Supports the annual and monthly changes stated in “Health Services and Information Are Moving in Opposite Directions.” The education and health-services value is a combined major-industry series.
- ↩ Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos Economy at a Glance — Provides the Austin MSA payroll total, annual growth rate, latest displayed unemployment rate, and industry changes used in “The Four Largest Metro Areas Are Not Moving Together.” The metro figures are not seasonally adjusted.
- ↩ Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington Economy at a Glance — Supplies the DFW MSA payroll total, annual growth rate, latest displayed unemployment rate, and selected industry changes used in the major-metro table.
- ↩ Houston–Pasadena–The Woodlands Economy at a Glance — Provides the Houston MSA payroll total, annual growth rate, latest displayed unemployment rate, and construction, information, and financial-activities changes used in the major-metro table.
- ↩ San Antonio–New Braunfels Economy at a Glance — Supplies the San Antonio MSA payroll total, annual growth rate, latest displayed unemployment rate, and selected industry changes used in the major-metro comparison.
- ↩ El Paso Economy at a Glance — Provides the El Paso payroll total, annual growth rate, latest displayed unemployment rate, and industry changes used in “Labor Demand Beyond the Four Largest Metros.”
- ↩ Midland Economy at a Glance — Supplies the Midland MSA payroll total, annual growth rate, latest displayed unemployment rate, and selected industry changes in the regional comparison. The MSA does not cover the entire Permian Basin.
- ↩ McAllen–Edinburg–Mission Economy at a Glance — Provides the metro payroll total, annual growth rate, latest displayed unemployment rate, and industry changes used in the regional comparison. The MSA is not a statistical boundary for the entire Lower Rio Grande Valley.
- ↩ Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Survey special questions, June 2026 — Supplies the past and expected wage-growth averages used in “Employer Wage Expectations Strengthened in June.” The figures are survey averages and do not establish individual pay increases.
- ↩ BLS State Job Openings and Labor Turnover release — Defines a job opening for “A Job Advertisement, an Opening, and a Projection Are Different Measures” and confirms that the state JOLTS news release moved from monthly to annual publication. The July 2026 release reports annual 2025 state estimates rather than a live 2026 monthly vacancy total.
- ↩ Texas industry and occupational projections portal and Texas labor-market information release schedule — Support the projection period and geographic selection described in “A Job Advertisement, an Opening, and a Projection Are Different Measures.” The schedule identifies July 2026 as the release month for the 2024–2034 long-term projections.
- ↩ Texas Workforce Commission 2026 labor-market release dates — Confirms the August 21, 2026 release date and 9:00 a.m. Central Time publication time stated in “Data Checkpoints for the Rest of 2026.” It also states that substate estimates may be delayed and all estimates are subject to revision.